Love this song by Fuzon..... I think its in urdu, and it calls for some training and 'riyaz' before one can attempt it ... I lack all of that, but what the hell, I love the song so here it is.
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Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Raincoat
No, this is not about the movie.....let's just say this is inspired by a memory that came running out of the labyrinth, to answer the call of a sight or smell, or indeed of another memory ....that is hardly the point. So let's move on.
I was in high school, maybe 14 or thereabouts. It was one of those rainy days back in the 90s when the city, or at least my pristine suburb felt so great. I'd wake up to the sound of raindrops tapping away at the earth, the trees and on the roof of our house. I used to love this particular change in the weather, for a few reasons. For one, everything looked different, and I could play longer without everyone getting tired. Also, in many ways, the entire place seemed cleaned up, somehow after the water ran all over the streets.
Anyway on days like these, I'd wake up, enjoy the chill outside, the warmth of my blanket and having done all of my morning chores, I'd head to the front door, wheeling my bicycle out. My bicycle was this really cool silver "BSA Mach -1" which was the lightest, fastest racing cycle available back then, purchased for the princely sum of Rs. 875.
A boy's first bicycle is probably his first serious prized possession and it was no different for me. And then I'd put on my raincoat. It was pretty incredible as an innovation I thought, silly as it may seem. Not that it was clever, but because it allowed you to do all the things you liked to do in an environment you liked to do them in. I could ride my bike as fast as anything, and I could do it despite the fact that it rained so hard I could hardly hear myself think.
When I reached school and took my raincoat off, I'd look at it with satisfaction. Not because I was especially fond of the plastic green thing with huge buttons, but because it always reminded me of the rain. Everyone had a smile plastered to their faces, thinking, "Wow, its raining and we all made it"!
On rainy days like these, everyone would be different. The teacher spoke more softly, everyone in class was a little quieter, listening intently to the clouds, somewhat amazed by the loud rain, the spray, the wind ... it seemed we were in the middle of an enchanting spell.
Faced with somewhat complex emotions these days, I somehow revived the memory of my green raincoat, and the security it inspired.
When I put it on, I was alright, and I willed the rain to come down even harder.
No, this is not about the movie.....let's just say this is inspired by a memory that came running out of the labyrinth, to answer the call of a sight or smell, or indeed of another memory ....that is hardly the point. So let's move on.
I was in high school, maybe 14 or thereabouts. It was one of those rainy days back in the 90s when the city, or at least my pristine suburb felt so great. I'd wake up to the sound of raindrops tapping away at the earth, the trees and on the roof of our house. I used to love this particular change in the weather, for a few reasons. For one, everything looked different, and I could play longer without everyone getting tired. Also, in many ways, the entire place seemed cleaned up, somehow after the water ran all over the streets.
Anyway on days like these, I'd wake up, enjoy the chill outside, the warmth of my blanket and having done all of my morning chores, I'd head to the front door, wheeling my bicycle out. My bicycle was this really cool silver "BSA Mach -1" which was the lightest, fastest racing cycle available back then, purchased for the princely sum of Rs. 875.
A boy's first bicycle is probably his first serious prized possession and it was no different for me. And then I'd put on my raincoat. It was pretty incredible as an innovation I thought, silly as it may seem. Not that it was clever, but because it allowed you to do all the things you liked to do in an environment you liked to do them in. I could ride my bike as fast as anything, and I could do it despite the fact that it rained so hard I could hardly hear myself think.
When I reached school and took my raincoat off, I'd look at it with satisfaction. Not because I was especially fond of the plastic green thing with huge buttons, but because it always reminded me of the rain. Everyone had a smile plastered to their faces, thinking, "Wow, its raining and we all made it"!
On rainy days like these, everyone would be different. The teacher spoke more softly, everyone in class was a little quieter, listening intently to the clouds, somewhat amazed by the loud rain, the spray, the wind ... it seemed we were in the middle of an enchanting spell.
Faced with somewhat complex emotions these days, I somehow revived the memory of my green raincoat, and the security it inspired.
When I put it on, I was alright, and I willed the rain to come down even harder.
Friday, October 26, 2007
I admit I don't watch too many reality shows or contests on TV. Browsing channels sometime last week, I happened to watch Amanat Ali sing "Tujhse Naraaz Nahin Zindagi". It was a brilliant performance to say the least.
I discovered that this was quite a nice story .... Amanat Ali is a Pakistani who entered an Indian singing show and finished third. Since the show was based on sms voting, most people say that the size of the population worked against him somewhat, since he was pretty much the best singer by a mile.
But it's a nice story nevertheless. He may not have won, but the fact that he got as far as he did says something.
This performance is his rendition of "Khamaj" a super-hit from the Pakistani band Fuzon. It's from their first album. I bought the album a long time ago and this was my favourite song.
Amanat sings this slightly differently from Fuzon, and brings a great story-telling quality to the song with his poignant, deliberate rendition. A must watch!
It doesn't hurt that this clip also has Diya Mirza watching, looking as beautiful as ever ... overwhelmed and everything at the power of the song :-)
I discovered that this was quite a nice story .... Amanat Ali is a Pakistani who entered an Indian singing show and finished third. Since the show was based on sms voting, most people say that the size of the population worked against him somewhat, since he was pretty much the best singer by a mile.
But it's a nice story nevertheless. He may not have won, but the fact that he got as far as he did says something.
This performance is his rendition of "Khamaj" a super-hit from the Pakistani band Fuzon. It's from their first album. I bought the album a long time ago and this was my favourite song.
Amanat sings this slightly differently from Fuzon, and brings a great story-telling quality to the song with his poignant, deliberate rendition. A must watch!
It doesn't hurt that this clip also has Diya Mirza watching, looking as beautiful as ever ... overwhelmed and everything at the power of the song :-)
Friday, October 19, 2007
Of P-Notes, Bulls, Bears and Clueless Experts on TV
I began investing actively in the monsoons of 2003. Not just to make extra money, but also because I was fascinated by the entire science of investing. Investing called for recognising patterns, maximising equations, understanding how "value" changed under the hood, and finally ... for the ability to see the big picture. I have a preference for seeing the "big picture" as you might have gleaned.
Armed with some theoretical financial knowledge based on my newly acquired shiny MBA and after consuming all available public research on the performance of mutual funds and equities, I set out to do my share of informed and intelligent investing.
Since 2003, I have witnessed two market meltdowns, and a fairly consistent bull run. Given that we seem to be now witnessing a fairly decent sized crash, its time to put some thoughts together to help anyone who may be rolling up their sleeves to roll the dice. I'll keep this post short and come back to it from time to time. As you can imagine, investing is an ocean by itself, but I really want to take the time to state my most compelling learnings. The stuff that you can learn when you go beyond the books that you can buy.
1. Prices and "Market Efficiency"
Generally speaking, the basic methods to calculate the value of equities are fairly well defined and agreed upon. What does this mean? This means that given the same amount of information about a company, everyone with access to that information must agree upon the value of a share. They should use the same set of tools and therefore arrive at the same number. This phenomenon of agreement is rather elegantly called "Market Efficiency".
What does this mean?
News about the world, a country and a company is usually public information. If there is good or bad news , everyone goes back to the computer, crunches the set of available numbers and then discovers that the last calculated "real value" has changed, creating an arbitrage opportunity exists. Simply put, this means that there is a difference between "current value" and "real" value. Market participants now quickly buy or sell as the case may be, hoping to make money till such time that "current value" == "real value".
All that I have stated so far is the stuff that books will teach you. This is also basically what "experts" and "analysts" on TV base their comments on. More often than not, and not surprisingly, it is usually foreign analysts and fund managers who apply these methods based on PE values and state that the stock index is at "fair" value at a certain level.
For the first few months of my investing life, I tracked these crunched reports and listened carefully to well articulated arguments about what should be fair value. Over time, I learnt never take the guy on TV too seriously.
Why?
Because they are squarely wrong when it comes to the times when you really lose money or gain money.
Secondly the quality of finance journalists in India is far from professional. Admittedly, the electronic media in the finance space is relatively new. Anchors were hired initially to field calls from common people to relay the question to experts, but over time, they have graduated to believing that they are skilled analysts. Gosh, the grander the illusion, the faster they believe.
CNBC anchors are actually happy or sad depending on the current value of the sensex. This is astonishing to say the least!!! How can a finance news anchor be attached to prices going up??? This is nothing but irrational. If something kept going up unnaturally, any person would question it, rather than jump for joy and wear "15K" or "18K" T shirts and then dance behind a similarly labeled placard. Seriously, a much awarded journalist on CNBC has done just that on numerous occasions. Not just unprofessional, but also stupid.
If you discount the news anchor as a necessary and silly reality, you now begin to wonder why the erudite analyst is getting it wrong so often? Is there no Market Efficiency? Why is he missing the mark so routinely?
Why?
Great rhetorical question :-)
Cos markets are like weather systems in some ways. Acting on cause and effect, but the cause and effect of a very very large number of factors which are beyond the comprehension of a group of people. In time, factors become recognized .... like the Govt agents making well timed announcements, or long existing loopholes suddenly coming into focus, or large amounts of money changing course and entering an emerging economy, etc. Not really the butterfly flapping its wings causing a storm at the other end of the planet, but definitely something similar.
Take the P-Note situation which caused the latest fall? Apparently as of today, 51% of FII money comes in through P-Notes.
Whats a P-Note? A SEBI registered FII, turns around in his country and asks someone if they want to invest in India without registering with the Govt agency. The foreigner says "YES" and begins to pump money into the FII. Liquidity increases, stock prices go up, and people make money. The Govt waits till we are at dizzying heights before realising that most money coming in is dirty and decides to clamp down.
Note that the P-Note mechanism was always prone to this risk. Why is the Govt reacting so late? Is this just a case of solving the problem now, when it is bigger? Should they have waited till the elections were over? Could they have waited no longer? How dirty was the money?
Anyway, the point is, as an individual investor, relying on public information, you can never be sure of making money in the next 6-18 months. Trust me, I know this from experience. A very successful man once said to me "Invest in the stock market the amount of money you are prepared to lose". This came from a very successful man who built and sold a few companies in his lifetime, and maintained most of his winnings in the stock market. Of course he didn't mean stay out. He meant invest only what you are prepared to lose in the short term.
There is something to be said for analysis, all said and done. Everyone agrees that India is the place to invest in for all the right reasons. So you should. Invest what you are prepared to lose, but invest.
Before I sign off, I have to recollect what two celebrated agencies Citibank and Credit Suisse said an year ago. They said the fair value of the Indian equity market is with the sensex at 8K. This was less than an year ago. The sensex has at 19K last week. So much for market efficiency.
So what is my prescription. Become better at reading the weather. Understand the seasons, but always account for the odd tsunami. Also, know that the longer you study the weather, the better you will get at it. And finally, buy insurance if you live near the ocean.
I began investing actively in the monsoons of 2003. Not just to make extra money, but also because I was fascinated by the entire science of investing. Investing called for recognising patterns, maximising equations, understanding how "value" changed under the hood, and finally ... for the ability to see the big picture. I have a preference for seeing the "big picture" as you might have gleaned.
Armed with some theoretical financial knowledge based on my newly acquired shiny MBA and after consuming all available public research on the performance of mutual funds and equities, I set out to do my share of informed and intelligent investing.
Since 2003, I have witnessed two market meltdowns, and a fairly consistent bull run. Given that we seem to be now witnessing a fairly decent sized crash, its time to put some thoughts together to help anyone who may be rolling up their sleeves to roll the dice. I'll keep this post short and come back to it from time to time. As you can imagine, investing is an ocean by itself, but I really want to take the time to state my most compelling learnings. The stuff that you can learn when you go beyond the books that you can buy.
1. Prices and "Market Efficiency"
Generally speaking, the basic methods to calculate the value of equities are fairly well defined and agreed upon. What does this mean? This means that given the same amount of information about a company, everyone with access to that information must agree upon the value of a share. They should use the same set of tools and therefore arrive at the same number. This phenomenon of agreement is rather elegantly called "Market Efficiency".
What does this mean?
News about the world, a country and a company is usually public information. If there is good or bad news , everyone goes back to the computer, crunches the set of available numbers and then discovers that the last calculated "real value" has changed, creating an arbitrage opportunity exists. Simply put, this means that there is a difference between "current value" and "real" value. Market participants now quickly buy or sell as the case may be, hoping to make money till such time that "current value" == "real value".
All that I have stated so far is the stuff that books will teach you. This is also basically what "experts" and "analysts" on TV base their comments on. More often than not, and not surprisingly, it is usually foreign analysts and fund managers who apply these methods based on PE values and state that the stock index is at "fair" value at a certain level.
For the first few months of my investing life, I tracked these crunched reports and listened carefully to well articulated arguments about what should be fair value. Over time, I learnt never take the guy on TV too seriously.
Why?
Because they are squarely wrong when it comes to the times when you really lose money or gain money.
Secondly the quality of finance journalists in India is far from professional. Admittedly, the electronic media in the finance space is relatively new. Anchors were hired initially to field calls from common people to relay the question to experts, but over time, they have graduated to believing that they are skilled analysts. Gosh, the grander the illusion, the faster they believe.
CNBC anchors are actually happy or sad depending on the current value of the sensex. This is astonishing to say the least!!! How can a finance news anchor be attached to prices going up??? This is nothing but irrational. If something kept going up unnaturally, any person would question it, rather than jump for joy and wear "15K" or "18K" T shirts and then dance behind a similarly labeled placard. Seriously, a much awarded journalist on CNBC has done just that on numerous occasions. Not just unprofessional, but also stupid.
If you discount the news anchor as a necessary and silly reality, you now begin to wonder why the erudite analyst is getting it wrong so often? Is there no Market Efficiency? Why is he missing the mark so routinely?
Why?
Great rhetorical question :-)
Cos markets are like weather systems in some ways. Acting on cause and effect, but the cause and effect of a very very large number of factors which are beyond the comprehension of a group of people. In time, factors become recognized .... like the Govt agents making well timed announcements, or long existing loopholes suddenly coming into focus, or large amounts of money changing course and entering an emerging economy, etc. Not really the butterfly flapping its wings causing a storm at the other end of the planet, but definitely something similar.
Take the P-Note situation which caused the latest fall? Apparently as of today, 51% of FII money comes in through P-Notes.
Whats a P-Note? A SEBI registered FII, turns around in his country and asks someone if they want to invest in India without registering with the Govt agency. The foreigner says "YES" and begins to pump money into the FII. Liquidity increases, stock prices go up, and people make money. The Govt waits till we are at dizzying heights before realising that most money coming in is dirty and decides to clamp down.
Note that the P-Note mechanism was always prone to this risk. Why is the Govt reacting so late? Is this just a case of solving the problem now, when it is bigger? Should they have waited till the elections were over? Could they have waited no longer? How dirty was the money?
Anyway, the point is, as an individual investor, relying on public information, you can never be sure of making money in the next 6-18 months. Trust me, I know this from experience. A very successful man once said to me "Invest in the stock market the amount of money you are prepared to lose". This came from a very successful man who built and sold a few companies in his lifetime, and maintained most of his winnings in the stock market. Of course he didn't mean stay out. He meant invest only what you are prepared to lose in the short term.
There is something to be said for analysis, all said and done. Everyone agrees that India is the place to invest in for all the right reasons. So you should. Invest what you are prepared to lose, but invest.
Before I sign off, I have to recollect what two celebrated agencies Citibank and Credit Suisse said an year ago. They said the fair value of the Indian equity market is with the sensex at 8K. This was less than an year ago. The sensex has at 19K last week. So much for market efficiency.
So what is my prescription. Become better at reading the weather. Understand the seasons, but always account for the odd tsunami. Also, know that the longer you study the weather, the better you will get at it. And finally, buy insurance if you live near the ocean.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Thursday, October 04, 2007
The Bourne Syndrome
Watched "The Bourne Ultimatum" last week. I'm a huge fan of the book trilogy, so I guess its hard to comment on the movie in isolation.
"The Bourne Identity" was probably the first big novel I remember reading. Even back then, it had a great impact on me. When I watched the movie (Identity) a couple of years ago, I relived the book and remembered how brilliant the idea for the character was.
A fishing boat at night finds a man floating at sea. He is bullet ridden, miraculously alive. The saline waters have been a disinfectant to his wounds. He is operated upon by a drunk brilliant village surgeon who manages to save him ... finding a microfilm in the process that catalyzes the story. The setting is simply eerie to begin with, and grabs you the moment you learn that the character does not remember who he is.
The character is left with one and only one resource to begin with - his instincts. He relies solely on them to survive, and notices that he is being hunted assiduously all over Europe. As the pages turn, he discovers he can speak several languages without an accent, finds himself memorizing his surroundings, looking for exits in crowded places, identifying armed people in crowds with absolutely accuracy, finds he is a master of several combat forms, can decompose weapons without thinking or knowing how, and can do so much more without knowing his own name. The inherent tension makes for a stage of immense possibilities.
I guess from a purely objective perspective, Robert Ludlum's genius lies firstly in his ability to not go south after conjuring such a great stage (you simply have to read Identity, Supremacy and Ultimatum to know why), and in his ability to uncover the character for what he is ..... a seriously frightened human trying to stay alive. As a fan of the books, I guess I have to say that the movies do not do complete justice to this aspect of Jason Bourne, notwithstanding Matt Damon's fine effort.
The dichotomy of the character, oscillating from being completely secure in his ability to get through a visible situation, yet completely vulnerable on account of his disability is touching to say the least .... and registers subconsciously given that most human existence touches the ends of the security-fear pendulum at varying intervals. In Jason Bourne's case, it happens on every other page. A must read.
I don't think Ludlum recreated the brilliance in his other books. I remember reading The Scarlatti Inheritance, The Icarus Agenda, The Materese Circle, etc, but Ludlum's situation seems similar to that of Gabriel Garcia Marquez. After you write something like "100 Years of Solitude", the possibility of being so re-inspired has to be an act of God, or a similar improbability :)
Watched "The Bourne Ultimatum" last week. I'm a huge fan of the book trilogy, so I guess its hard to comment on the movie in isolation.
"The Bourne Identity" was probably the first big novel I remember reading. Even back then, it had a great impact on me. When I watched the movie (Identity) a couple of years ago, I relived the book and remembered how brilliant the idea for the character was.
A fishing boat at night finds a man floating at sea. He is bullet ridden, miraculously alive. The saline waters have been a disinfectant to his wounds. He is operated upon by a drunk brilliant village surgeon who manages to save him ... finding a microfilm in the process that catalyzes the story. The setting is simply eerie to begin with, and grabs you the moment you learn that the character does not remember who he is.
The character is left with one and only one resource to begin with - his instincts. He relies solely on them to survive, and notices that he is being hunted assiduously all over Europe. As the pages turn, he discovers he can speak several languages without an accent, finds himself memorizing his surroundings, looking for exits in crowded places, identifying armed people in crowds with absolutely accuracy, finds he is a master of several combat forms, can decompose weapons without thinking or knowing how, and can do so much more without knowing his own name. The inherent tension makes for a stage of immense possibilities.
I guess from a purely objective perspective, Robert Ludlum's genius lies firstly in his ability to not go south after conjuring such a great stage (you simply have to read Identity, Supremacy and Ultimatum to know why), and in his ability to uncover the character for what he is ..... a seriously frightened human trying to stay alive. As a fan of the books, I guess I have to say that the movies do not do complete justice to this aspect of Jason Bourne, notwithstanding Matt Damon's fine effort.
The dichotomy of the character, oscillating from being completely secure in his ability to get through a visible situation, yet completely vulnerable on account of his disability is touching to say the least .... and registers subconsciously given that most human existence touches the ends of the security-fear pendulum at varying intervals. In Jason Bourne's case, it happens on every other page. A must read.
I don't think Ludlum recreated the brilliance in his other books. I remember reading The Scarlatti Inheritance, The Icarus Agenda, The Materese Circle, etc, but Ludlum's situation seems similar to that of Gabriel Garcia Marquez. After you write something like "100 Years of Solitude", the possibility of being so re-inspired has to be an act of God, or a similar improbability :)
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